브레이크가 걸리지 않는 엔하락의 배경으로 무엇이 있는 것인가.
마크로 경제가 전문의 케이오 기쥬쿠 대학 경제학부의고바야시 케이이치로교수는, 장기적으로 일본의 경쟁력이 저하되고 있는 것이 있다라고 지적합니다.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20221020/k10013864931000.html
https://www.kjclub.com/jp/board/exc_board_9/view/id/3590120
고바야시 케이이치로(코바야시 게이이치로,1966년- )는,일본의경제학자.전문은거시적 경제학, 경제동학,금융론.도쿄 재단 정책 연구소 연구주간.신형 코로나 바이러스 감염증 대책등의 정부 자문기관,기본적 대처 방침등 자문위원회 위원,신형 코로나 바이러스 감염증 대책 분과회 멤버.
시카고 대학 대학원 박사 과정 수료[1].시카고 대학에서의 지도교관은로버트·루카스.
「늑대 소년이라고 해져도매년 1권은 재정 위기의 책을 내 몇숲입니다」[2]로 말하고 있다.
하버드 대학의카멘·라인 하트 교수와케네스·로고후 교수들이2010년에 발표한 논문(정부채무 잔고가 커지면 경제성장에 악영향을 주게 되는 것을 실증했다고 여겨진다)이,2013년에 잘못인 것이 판명되어, 저자들도 잘못을 인정하고 있던에도 불구하고, 「재정 파탄후 위기의 시나리오 분석」(일본 경제 신문 출판사)에 두고,2018년이라고 하는 시점에서 무비판에, 자설의 근거로 인용했다.
Reinhart, Rogoff… and Herndon: The student who caught out the profs
Reinhart and Rogoff weren"t available to be interviewed, but they did provide the BBC with a statement.
In it, they said: “We are grateful to Herndon et al. for the careful attention to our original Growth in a Time of Debt AER paper and for pointing out an important correction to Figure 2 of that paper. It is sobering that such an error slipped into one of our papers despite our best efforts to be consistently careful. We will redouble our efforts to avoid such errors in the future. We do not, however, believe this regrettable slip affects in any significant way the central message of the paper or that in our subsequent work.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-22223190
In 2013, academic critics accused Reinhart and Rogoff of employing methodology that suffered from 3 major errors; they asserted that the underlying data did not support the authors” conclusions. These critics held that the Reinhart–Rogoff paper had led to unjustified adoption of austerity policies for countries with various levels of public debt.[4][5][6][7]
Further papers by Rogoff and Reinhart,[8] and the International Monetary Fund,[9] which were not found to contain similar errors, reached conclusions similar to the initial paper, though with much lower impact on GDP growth. The threshold hypothesis retains adherents[10] as well as critics, who suggest that the thresholds in the relation between public debt and economic growth lack robustness,[11] so a consensus on the 90%-threshold hypothesis in the relation between public debt and economic growth has been elusive. A recent meta-analysis (although not published yet) provides evidence there is no threshold above which a higher debt to GDP ratio reduces GDP.[12]
어떤 경제학상의 입장인지를 읽어 푸는 전제 지식이 없으면
바보로 계속 되는 것에 깨닫습시다.
歯止めがかからない円安の背景に何があるのか。
マクロ経済が専門の慶応義塾大学経済学部の小林慶一郎教授は、長期的に日本の競争力が低下していることがあると指摘します。
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20221020/k10013864931000.html
https://www.kjclub.com/jp/board/exc_board_9/view/id/3590120
小林 慶一郎（こばやし けいいちろう、1966年 - ）は、日本の経済学者。専門はマクロ経済学、経済動学、金融論。東京財団政策研究所研究主幹。新型コロナウイルス感染症対策等の政府諮問機関、基本的対処方針等諮問委員会委員、新型コロナウイルス感染症対策分科会メンバー。
シカゴ大学大学院博士課程修了[1]。シカゴ大学での指導教官はロバート・ルーカス。
「オオカミ少年と言われても毎年1冊は財政危機の本を出していくつもりです」[2]と述べている。
ハーバード大学のカーメン・ラインハート教授とケネス・ロゴフ教授たちが2010年に発表した論文（政府債務残高が大きくなると経済成長に悪影響を与えるようになることを実証したとされる）が、2013年に誤りであることが判明し、著者たちも誤りを認めていたにもかかわらず、『財政破綻後 危機のシナリオ分析』(日本経済新聞出版社)において、2018年という時点で無批判に、自説の根拠に引用した。
Reinhart, Rogoff... and Herndon: The student who caught out the profs
Reinhart and Rogoff weren"t available to be interviewed, but they did provide the BBC with a statement.
In it, they said: "We are grateful to Herndon et al. for the careful attention to our original Growth in a Time of Debt AER paper and for pointing out an important correction to Figure 2 of that paper. It is sobering that such an error slipped into one of our papers despite our best efforts to be consistently careful. We will redouble our efforts to avoid such errors in the future. We do not, however, believe this regrettable slip affects in any significant way the central message of the paper or that in our subsequent work."
https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-22223190
In 2013, academic critics accused Reinhart and Rogoff of employing methodology that suffered from 3 major errors; they asserted that the underlying data did not support the authors" conclusions. These critics held that the Reinhart–Rogoff paper had led to unjustified adoption of austerity policies for countries with various levels of public debt.[4][5][6][7]
Further papers by Rogoff and Reinhart,[8] and the International Monetary Fund,[9] which were not found to contain similar errors, reached conclusions similar to the initial paper, though with much lower impact on GDP growth. The threshold hypothesis retains adherents[10] as well as critics, who suggest that the thresholds in the relation between public debt and economic growth lack robustness,[11] so a consensus on the 90%-threshold hypothesis in the relation between public debt and economic growth has been elusive. A recent meta-analysis (although not published yet) provides evidence there is no threshold above which a higher debt to GDP ratio reduces GDP.[12]
どういう経済学上の立場かを読み解く前提知識がないと、
バカにされ続けることに気付きましょう。